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第 40 课:Central Bank Chairman Upbeat about US Economy
中央银行行长对美国经济持乐观态度

Share prices shot up primarily because market participants believe interest rates will hold steady and not have to rise to contain inflationary pressure. 股票价格飙升主要是因为市场参与者相信利率会保持稳定而不用升级到遏制通货膨胀的压力。

After a series of increases in 2004 and 2005, short-term interest rates have held steady at five-and-a-quarter percent. Bernanke was cautious in addressing the inflationary outlook. 在 2004 年至 2005 年一系列增长之后,短期利率一直稳定在 5%~25% 之间。伯南克在讲到通货膨胀的走向时谨小慎微。

Bernanke : As I noted earlier, there are some signs that inflationary pressures are beginning to diminish. 伯南克:“正如我先前讲到的,有迹象表明通货膨胀的压力已开始减弱。

The monthly data are noisy [unclear], however, and consequently it will be more time before we can be confident that underlying inflation is moderating as anticipated . 然而每月数据很模糊(不清晰),因此我们在很长的一段时间内都无法确信,潜在的通货膨胀是否正如预期般的处于缓和阶段。”

Bernanke said the weak housing sector remains a cause of concern, but he saw signs of improvement. 伯南克说脆弱的房地产市场仍然需要关注,但是他看到了进步。

Bernanke : Single family housing starts have dropped more than 30 percent since the beginning of last year and employment growth in the construction sector has slowed substantially. 伯南克: “ 去年年初以来,单一家庭住房开始下降 30% 多 , 建筑业就业增长也已大幅减缓。

Some tentative signs of stabilization have recently occurred in the housing market. 一些不稳定迹象近期出现在房地产市场上。

New and existing home sales have flattened out in recent months, mortgage applications have picked up , and some surveys find that home buyer sentiment has improved.新的和现存的售房量近月已被磨平,抵押申请境况开始好转,而且一些调查发现,买房者情绪也在高涨。”

After several years of rapid increases, U.S. home prices fell last year and many experts say the market bottom has not yet been reached. 美国房价在持续多年飙升之后,于去年开始下滑;许多专家预言房价市场并未到达底部。

But the general theme of Bernanke's testimony was optimistic . He expects the U.S. economy to expand by nearly three percent this year and next. 但伯南克言词大体乐观。他预计美国经济,今年和明年,将上升近 3 个百分点。

And he expects that exports are rising twice as fast as imports of that time. He believes U.S. households are generally in good financial condition and that the business sector activity is healthy with investment boomer. 同时他还预期出口将提高两倍,与同期进口增长速度相同。他相信,美国家庭经济状况大体良好,商务领域活动繁荣,投资上升。