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金融世界
第 10 讲: 经济的繁荣与萧条

市场经济的兴衰,一如白昼之后是黑夜。澳大利亚的历史经验说明,每一次经济的繁荣之后,随之而来的必然是衰退。其他国家也不例外。

在今天的节目中,我们就跟您谈谈市场经济的繁荣与萧条,英文是: Boom and Bust.

boom 繁荣
bust 萧条
Boom and Bust

您现在听到的是澳大利亚墨尔本房地产拍卖的情景。房地产价格的高低,一直是经济繁荣或衰退的晴雨表。

经济学家早就指出,经济的繁荣与萧条一如潮涨潮落昼夜交替一样自然,澳大利亚就一再经历过经济繁荣与衰退的周期循环。

美国经济学家明斯基解释了经济循环发展的规律。他指出,经济平稳发展时,由于多余资金流入市场,或银行数量增多,银行为 market share 也就是占有市场的份额竞争激烈,突然之间市场借贷活动大量增加,利率降低,银行贷款竞争加剧,推动房地产价格猛涨,形成一个危险信号。

接着是购房人行为改变,投机者 speculators 取代传统投资人,大举借贷购买资产,期望物业短期升值转手盈利。人为的炒作使资产价格远远超过本身的价值。一旦银行融资减少,利率上升,房地产和其他资产价格开始下滑,就会出现 asset deflation,资产亏损。大笔举债购买资产的人希望破灭,又纷纷抛售,甚至血本无归,宣布破产。银行贷款无法收回,造成大量坏账。经济迅速进入低潮。仅仅在一九八十年代的萧条中,澳大利亚银行就被迫注销了高达两百亿澳元的坏账。

历史的教训使人们对银行业之间有过多的竞争是否对经济发展有益提出了疑问。澳大利亚金融评论报的塞克斯指出:

It becomes evident that wide open competition in the banking sector does not yield benign results.The temptation always is to retain market share, to go for the highest profit, that is to lend money to the people who are prepared to pay the most for it, and also prepared to pay the highest fees for it, and these will normally be your worst credit risks. In boom times if credit goes out of the window and there is nothing to stop it because the banks are actually competing against each other on evaluating credit worthiness of clients and loosening up the evaluations, then you're going to get a crash of similar proportions again. 很显然银行业广泛的公开竞争不会有好的结果。银行受到的诱惑总是要保持占有市场的份额,追求最高利润,也就是要贷款给愿意支付最高利率同时愿意缴付最高费用的人。而这些人通常恰恰是最有信贷风险的人。在经济繁荣时期,如果贷款无法收回,也没有办法阻止它发生。因为各家银行在对客户进行信贷价值评估时互相竞争,从而放松评估的标准。这样,银行占有了多少市场份额,就会受到多大的打击。

塞克斯在他的谈话中提到这样一些词组:
1 retain market share 保持市场占有量或市场份额
2 credit risks 信贷风险
3 evaluating credit worthiness of clients 评估客户的信贷价值或信用声誉

Booms and busts,经济的繁荣与萧条几百年来一直以一成不变的规律循环交替。澳大利亚悉尼市一位资深股票经纪人里夫金对投资者的行为有深刻的观察。他说:

One of the greatest lessons that I've learnt from having studied booms for three hundred odd years, the number one rule is that all booms must bust. The larger the boom the larger the bust, the smaller the boom the smaller the bust. There's no exception to that. So that all you have to do is to identify whether you're in a boom in any investment market and then you know it will bust. 我研究三百多年经济繁荣历史的最深刻认识就是所有的繁荣都会变为萧条。越繁荣,萧条就会越严重,无一例外。所以必须要确定你所涉及的投资领域是否处于繁荣期,这样你就会知道它是否将进入萧条。

The other adage that I absolutely abide by is that you buy shares or assets, propety in doom or gloom, and you sell it in boom. Whereas of course most people do the very opposite, most people buy stocks or property when it's booming, and sell when there's gloom around. 我完全信奉的另一条格言是要在经济低靡或处于黑暗时期购买股票或其他资产以及房地产,在繁荣时期出售。但是大多数人却恰恰相反,在繁荣期购买股票或地产,在经济衰退时再出售。